A general strategy for the analysis of time series based on the use of ARIMA models or, for seasonal data, SARIMA models. The procedure was set out by Box and Jenkins in their 1970 book Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. The first stage consists of removing trends (see moving average) or cycles from the data. An appropriate type of model must then be identified and its parameters estimated. The estimated model is then compared with the original data and adjustments are made if necessary.