A random variable X, whose set of possible values consists of the non-negative integers, with probability function given bywhere λ is a positive constant, is said to have a Poisson distribution, or to be a Poisson variable, with parameter λ. (By convention, λ0=1 and 0!=1.) The distribution was named after Poisson, though the first derivation was by de Moivre in 1711. If we note that P(X=0)=e−λ, successive probabilities can be calculated by using the recurrence relation The mean and variance of the distribution are both λ. If λ is not an integer the mode is the value of the integer r for which r−1<λ<r. If λ is an integer then P(X=λ−1)=P(X=λ) and both (λ−1) and λ are modes. If λ<1 the graph of the probability function decreases steadily, whereas if λ>1 the graph increases steadily to the value at the mode, then decreases steadily, tending to 0 as r → ∞.
For large values of λ a normal approximation to the Poisson distribution may be used:and Φ is the cumulative distribution function for a standard normal variable (see normal distribution). The ‘½’ is a continuity correction. The approximation may be described as ‘For large values of λ a Poisson variable with mean λ is approximately N(λ, λ)’.
In a Poisson process the number of events in a given region, or a given time interval, has a Poisson distribution.