“law of averages”的概念、定义、翻译、参考文献-科学参考

law of averages

Mathematics

False conception that an event becomes more likely if it has been under‐represented so far in a sequence of observations. For example, if a fair coin has been tossed six times, and has come up with five heads and only one instance of tails, the ‘law of averages’ incorrectly suggests that tails is more likely on the next toss. But as each toss is independent, the probability of tails remains unchanged.

Statistics

As a sample size increases so the data will increasingly resemble the population being sampled and will take on its characteristics (see laws of large numbers). However, there is nothing deterministic about this process. It is easy to be deluded by the gambler’s fallacy, which advocates betting on numbers that ‘should have come up’. As an example, suppose that a fair die is rolled 24 times and no six is obtained. According to the gambler’s fallacy a six is long overdue and must be a good bet for the 25th roll—the truth is that its probability will be the same as for every other roll, namely, 1/6.

单词	law of averages
释义	law of averages Mathematics False conception that an event becomes more likely if it has been under‐represented so far in a sequence of observations. For example, if a fair coin has been tossed six times, and has come up with five heads and only one instance of tails, the ‘law of averages’ incorrectly suggests that tails is more likely on the next toss. But as each toss is independent, the probability of tails remains unchanged. Statistics As a sample size increases so the data will increasingly resemble the population being sampled and will take on its characteristics (see laws of large numbers). However, there is nothing deterministic about this process. It is easy to be deluded by the gambler’s fallacy, which advocates betting on numbers that ‘should have come up’. As an example, suppose that a fair die is rolled 24 times and no six is obtained. According to the gambler’s fallacy a six is long overdue and must be a good bet for the 25th roll—the truth is that its probability will be the same as for every other roll, namely, 1/6.
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