Modern analyses of sea-level changes due to glacial isostatic adjustment are based on the classic sea-level equation by Farrell and Clark (1976) Geophys. JR Astr. Soc. 46; Mitrovica and Milne (2003) Geophys. J. Int. 154, 2 present a further equation. See Kendal et al. (2005) Geophys. J. Int. 161, 3 on theoretical approaches to computing gravitationally self-consistent sea-level changes due to ice growth and ablation.
For something like 227 000 of the last 250 000 years, sea levels were around 10 m below their current stand (Voris (2000) J. Biogeog. 27). Nunn (2000) NZ Geogr. 56, 1 demonstrates the ‘possible and/or likely’ effects of a fall in sea level around ad 1220–1510 on Pacific islands: falling water-tables; the emergence of reef surfaces and the consequent reduction of nearshore water circulation; the emergence of reef islets; and the conversion of tidal inlets to brackish lakes. Heany et al. (2005) J. Biogeog. 32, 2 argue that late Pleistocene low sea-level shorelines, rather than current shorelines, define patterns of genetic variation among mammals on oceanic Philippine islands.
N. Bindoff et al. (2007) conclude that sea levels rose at an average rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm yr−1 during the 20th century. They estimate future sea-level rise of between 0.18 and 0.59 m for the 21st century. ‘These simple figures conceal substantial spatial and temporal variability’ (Church et al. (2006) Glob. & Planet. Change 53); see Edwards (2007) PPG 31, 6. For many atoll island states, sea-level rise is more than just a threat to their tourism; it also determines their survival (Wong (2003) Sing. J. Trop. Geog. 24, 1). These countries also have low adaptive capacity to sea-level rise, heavily dependent as they are on fragile environmental goods and services, such as coral reefs and fisheries (Nurse and Moore (2007) Nat. Resources Forum 31, virtual issue). Sea-level rise in Tuvalu is likely to contribute to saltwater intrusion, long-term loss of land, and damage to ecosystems, agriculture, and livelihoods (J. McCarthy et al., eds 2001). See Dawson in C. Gopalakrishnan and N. Okada, eds (2008) on sea-level rise and the Thames estuary. For a thorough review of this complex subject, see J. A. Church et al., eds (2010).